{"id":2407,"date":"2006-09-16T06:34:50","date_gmt":"2006-09-16T06:34:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tmsdesarrolladores.com\/pedropalma\/?p=2407"},"modified":"2016-07-09T07:13:09","modified_gmt":"2016-07-09T07:13:09","slug":"volatilidad-petrolera","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/volatilidad-petrolera\/","title":{"rendered":"Volatilidad petrolera"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Publicado en el diario \u201cEl Universal\u201d de Caracas. S\u00e1bado 16 de septiembre de 2006<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Durante las cinco semanas comprendidas entre el 7 de agosto y el 11 de septiembre de 2006 los precios del petr\u00f3leo disminuyeron m\u00e1s de un 19%.\u00a0 Ello se ha debido a m\u00faltiples razones sobre las que no tenemos capacidad de influencia, tales como la distensi\u00f3n en el Medio Oriente despu\u00e9s del cese al fuego en el L\u00edbano, el anuncio de una posible disposici\u00f3n de Ir\u00e1n a discutir con Occidente sus planes de enriquecimiento de uranio, las expectativas de una posible desaceleraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica en los EEUU, y las recientes revisiones a la baja en los estimados de expansi\u00f3n de la demanda de petr\u00f3leo en lo que resta del 2006 y 2007. Ello, como es natural, ha preocupado a la OPEP, organizaci\u00f3n que estar\u00eda considerando la posibilidad de reducir sus cuotas de producci\u00f3n con el fin de revertir la tendencia a la baja, buscando con ello impedir que los precios referenciales rompan la barrera de los $ 60 por barril.<\/p>\n<p>Esa coyuntura es particularmente inquietante para Venezuela, debido a que su econom\u00eda depende hoy, m\u00e1s que nunca, de la renta petrolera, cuyo s\u00f3lido aumento reciente ha permitido incrementar intensamente el gasto fiscal, generando una gran expansi\u00f3n monetaria que, a su vez, ha estimulado el consumo. De hecho, el crecimiento de la demanda ha sido mayor que el de la oferta local, por lo que ha sido necesario incrementar las importaciones para impedir desabastecimientos y aumentos de precios, por lo menos de los bienes y servicios que pueden ser objeto de comercio internacional. Adicionalmente, la abundancia de petrod\u00f3lares ha permitido anclar el tipo de cambio, produci\u00e9ndose una apreciaci\u00f3n sostenida de la moneda que hace cada vez m\u00e1s baratos los productos for\u00e1neos en comparaci\u00f3n a los locales. Esto, a su vez, ha contribuido a mitigar la inflaci\u00f3n, por lo menos hasta hace pocos meses.<\/p>\n<p>Dado que la continuaci\u00f3n de esta bonanza econ\u00f3mica depende de la obtenci\u00f3n de una renta petrolera cada vez mayor, la contracci\u00f3n de los precios internacionales, combinada con\u00a0 la ca\u00edda de la capacidad de producci\u00f3n de PDVSA, est\u00e1 generando una creciente preocupaci\u00f3n en Venezuela. Si bien hoy se cuenta con altas reservas internacionales y con recursos ahorrados en algunos fondos gubernamentales, que pudieran paliar por un tiempo una contracci\u00f3n de las exportaciones, la alt\u00edsima dependencia de una actividad tan vol\u00e1til como la petrolera nos demuestra, una vez m\u00e1s, cu\u00e1n vulnerable es nuestra econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6>Imagen: <span class=\"_r3\"><span class=\"irc_ho\" dir=\"ltr\">argentinashale.com<\/span><\/span><\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La ca\u00edda de los precios petroleros de varias semanas de agosto y septiembre de 2006 demostraron, una vez m\u00e1s, cu\u00e1n vulnerable es la econom\u00eda venezolana a las variaciones de esos precios, sobre los que el pa\u00eds tiene muy poca capacidad de influencia<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2428,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,17,19,21,11,23,22,26],"tags":[110,61,74,32,112,306,129,269,431],"class_list":["post-2407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articulos-de-opinion","category-economia-venezolana","category-fiscales-y-monetarios","category-inflacion","category-opinion","category-petroleo","category-politica-economica","category-sector-externo","tag-aspectos-fiscales-y-monetarios","tag-economia-venezolana","tag-inflacion","tag-petroleo","tag-politica-economica","tag-precios-petroleros","tag-sector-externo","tag-volatilidad-petrolera","tag-vulnerabilidad"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Volatilidad petrolera - Pedro A. 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