{"id":1570,"date":"2004-01-24T01:30:50","date_gmt":"2004-01-24T01:30:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tmsdesarrolladores.com\/pedropalma\/?p=1570"},"modified":"2016-07-10T14:50:31","modified_gmt":"2016-07-10T14:50:31","slug":"expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/","title":{"rendered":"Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Publicado en el diario \u201cEl Universal\u201d de Caracas. S\u00e1bado 24 de enero de 2004<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En los \u00faltimos d\u00edas se ha experimentado una disparada del tipo de cambio paralelo o libre. Ello ha sido producto de la incertidumbre y de las expectativas negativas generadas por los descabellados planteamientos del gobierno con respecto al uso de las reservas internacionales, y por las amenazas de intervenci\u00f3n del Banco Central de Venezuela que ha lanzado el presidente Ch\u00e1vez.\u00a0 Ello, combinado con la abundante liquidez existente, ha incentivado a los agentes econ\u00f3micos a buscar protecci\u00f3n contra el futuro incierto a trav\u00e9s de la adquisici\u00f3n masiva de d\u00f3lares en el mercado paralelo.\u00a0 Simult\u00e1neamente, la oferta en ese mercado se ha visto mermada, ya que quienes all\u00ed acuden para vender divisas lo hacen con el fin de obtener los bol\u00edvares que necesitan para realizar sus operaciones, o cubrir sus necesidades en Venezuela; pero, \u00bfpara qu\u00e9 vender d\u00f3lares que cada vez valen m\u00e1s, cuando lo que aqu\u00ed sobra son bol\u00edvares a bajo costo?<\/p>\n<p>Lo anterior ha producido un divorcio entre la tasa de cambio libre y la oficial, brecha que pudiera seguir ensanch\u00e1ndose en el futuro inmediato.\u00a0 La experiencia nos dice que cuando esto sucede se producen presiones inflacionarias cada vez m\u00e1s intensas, pues el disloque del tipo de cambio paralelo hace que los productores se convenzan de que los costes de reposici\u00f3n de sus insumos en el futuro van a ser mucho mayores.\u00a0 Ello los lleva a elevar sus precios hoy para as\u00ed asegurarse la captaci\u00f3n de la mayor cantidad de bol\u00edvares que requerir\u00e1n para seguir adquiriendo los d\u00f3lares que necesitar\u00e1n para importar sus insumos.<\/p>\n<p>Si el gobierno piensa que podr\u00e1 neutralizar este fen\u00f3meno inflacionario a trav\u00e9s de la preservaci\u00f3n de un tipo de cambio oficial mucho m\u00e1s bajo, se equivoca de plano.\u00a0 La disparidad entre las dos tasas de cambio hace cada vez m\u00e1s apetecibles los d\u00f3lares preferenciales, abon\u00e1ndose el terreno de la corrupci\u00f3n, pues muchos compradores estar\u00edan dispuestos a pagar jugosas comisiones para adquirir las divisas a precios muy inferiores a los del mercado paralelo, limit\u00e1ndose a\u00fan m\u00e1s el acceso a las mismas.\u00a0 Esto hace que, para la gran mayor\u00eda, el \u00fanico d\u00f3lar disponible sea el libre, por lo que su precio se transforma en el tipo de cambio de referencia para el establecimiento de los costes de producci\u00f3n de origen externo, afect\u00e1ndose as\u00ed los precios finales de los bienes que producimos.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6>Imagen: <span class=\"_r3\"><span class=\"irc_ho\" dir=\"ltr\">sumarium.com<\/span><\/span><\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Si dentro de un control de cambios se produce un divorcio entre las tasas de cambio oficial y libre, ello genera presiones inflacionarias crecientes que no se pueden neutralizar a trav\u00e9s del mantenimiento de tipos de cambio preferenciales que mantengan el precio de la divisa en niveles muy bajos<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1582,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,17,21,11,22],"tags":[111,494,493,278,113,61,74,112,495,496],"class_list":["post-1570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articulos-de-opinion","category-economia-venezolana","category-inflacion","category-opinion","category-politica-economica","tag-aspectos-cambiarios","tag-cambio-libre","tag-cambio-oficial","tag-control-de-cambios","tag-divisas","tag-economia-venezolana","tag-inflacion","tag-politica-economica","tag-presiones-inflacionarias","tag-tipos-de-cambio-preferencial"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n - Pedro A. Palma<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n - Pedro A. Palma\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Si dentro de un control de cambios se produce un divorcio entre las tasas de cambio oficial y libre, ello genera presiones inflacionarias crecientes que no se pueden neutralizar a trav\u00e9s del mantenimiento de tipos de cambio preferenciales que mantengan el precio de la divisa en niveles muy bajos\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pedro A. Palma\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2004-01-24T01:30:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-07-10T14:50:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/1138dolarparalelo.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1138\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"758\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mariel Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mariel Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Mariel Torres\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4a9b45ec462a5c230e4a639a0c256866\"},\"headline\":\"Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n\",\"datePublished\":\"2004-01-24T01:30:50+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-07-10T14:50:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":445,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/05\\\/1138dolarparalelo.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Aspectos Cambiarios\",\"cambio libre\",\"cambio oficial\",\"Control de cambios\",\"Divisas\",\"Econom\u00eda venezolana\",\"Inflaci\u00f3n\",\"Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f3mica\",\"presiones inflacionarias\",\"tipos de cambio preferencial\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Art\u00edculos de opini\u00f3n\",\"Econom\u00eda venezolana\",\"Inflaci\u00f3n\",\"Opini\u00f3n\",\"Pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica\"],\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/\",\"name\":\"Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n - Pedro A. Palma\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/05\\\/1138dolarparalelo.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2004-01-24T01:30:50+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-07-10T14:50:31+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4a9b45ec462a5c230e4a639a0c256866\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/05\\\/1138dolarparalelo.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/05\\\/1138dolarparalelo.jpg\",\"width\":1138,\"height\":758},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Portada\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/\",\"name\":\"Pedro A. Palma\",\"description\":\"Economista\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"es\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/pedroapalma.com\\\/site\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4a9b45ec462a5c230e4a639a0c256866\",\"name\":\"Mariel Torres\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/e40c6e09d294639f65ccda3de6d4aa34ba9ad132fc2f2f2295ba9d668b065c25?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/e40c6e09d294639f65ccda3de6d4aa34ba9ad132fc2f2f2295ba9d668b065c25?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/e40c6e09d294639f65ccda3de6d4aa34ba9ad132fc2f2f2295ba9d668b065c25?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Mariel Torres\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n - Pedro A. Palma","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/","og_locale":"es_ES","og_type":"article","og_title":"Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n - Pedro A. Palma","og_description":"Si dentro de un control de cambios se produce un divorcio entre las tasas de cambio oficial y libre, ello genera presiones inflacionarias crecientes que no se pueden neutralizar a trav\u00e9s del mantenimiento de tipos de cambio preferenciales que mantengan el precio de la divisa en niveles muy bajos","og_url":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/","og_site_name":"Pedro A. Palma","article_published_time":"2004-01-24T01:30:50+00:00","article_modified_time":"2016-07-10T14:50:31+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1138,"height":758,"url":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/1138dolarparalelo.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Mariel Torres","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Escrito por":"Mariel Torres","Tiempo de lectura":"2 minutos"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/"},"author":{"name":"Mariel Torres","@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/#\/schema\/person\/4a9b45ec462a5c230e4a639a0c256866"},"headline":"Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n","datePublished":"2004-01-24T01:30:50+00:00","dateModified":"2016-07-10T14:50:31+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/"},"wordCount":445,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/1138dolarparalelo.jpg","keywords":["Aspectos Cambiarios","cambio libre","cambio oficial","Control de cambios","Divisas","Econom\u00eda venezolana","Inflaci\u00f3n","Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f3mica","presiones inflacionarias","tipos de cambio preferencial"],"articleSection":["Art\u00edculos de opini\u00f3n","Econom\u00eda venezolana","Inflaci\u00f3n","Opini\u00f3n","Pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica"],"inLanguage":"es","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/","url":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/","name":"Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n - Pedro A. Palma","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/1138dolarparalelo.jpg","datePublished":"2004-01-24T01:30:50+00:00","dateModified":"2016-07-10T14:50:31+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/#\/schema\/person\/4a9b45ec462a5c230e4a639a0c256866"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"es","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"es","@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/1138dolarparalelo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/1138dolarparalelo.jpg","width":1138,"height":758},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/expectativas-tipos-de-cambio-e-inflacion\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Portada","item":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Expectativas, tipos de cambio e inflaci\u00f3n"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/#website","url":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/","name":"Pedro A. Palma","description":"Economista","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"es"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/#\/schema\/person\/4a9b45ec462a5c230e4a639a0c256866","name":"Mariel Torres","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"es","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e40c6e09d294639f65ccda3de6d4aa34ba9ad132fc2f2f2295ba9d668b065c25?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e40c6e09d294639f65ccda3de6d4aa34ba9ad132fc2f2f2295ba9d668b065c25?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e40c6e09d294639f65ccda3de6d4aa34ba9ad132fc2f2f2295ba9d668b065c25?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Mariel Torres"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1570","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1570"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1570\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2528,"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1570\/revisions\/2528"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1582"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}