{"id":1461,"date":"2004-02-21T18:05:14","date_gmt":"2004-02-21T18:05:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tmsdesarrolladores.com\/pedropalma\/?p=1461"},"modified":"2016-07-10T14:26:41","modified_gmt":"2016-07-10T14:26:41","slug":"efectos-de-la-devaluacion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pedroapalma.com\/site\/efectos-de-la-devaluacion\/","title":{"rendered":"Efectos de la devaluaci\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Publicado en el diario \u201cEl Universal\u201d de Caracas. S\u00e1bado 21 de febrero de 2004<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>El reciente ajuste del tipo de cambio controlado a Bs\/$ 1.920 implic\u00f3, sin duda alguna, una devaluaci\u00f3n del bol\u00edvar oficial, es decir del bol\u00edvar que se utiliza para adquirir d\u00f3lares provistos por el BCV.\u00a0 Este cambio era esperado, no s\u00f3lo por que ya hab\u00eda sido anunciado por el propio ministro de Finanzas, sino por que el mismo implic\u00f3 una correcci\u00f3n parcial a una distorsi\u00f3n cambiaria que se fue acumulando durante el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o.\u00a0 En efecto, al haberse fijado el tipo de cambio oficial a Bs\/$ 1.600 durante un per\u00edodo en el que la inflaci\u00f3n a nivel de mayorista de productos nacionales se ubic\u00f3 en un 46%, muy superior a la experimentada por los pa\u00edses de donde importamos, el bol\u00edvar oficial se sobrevalu\u00f3 ostensiblemente, haci\u00e9ndose inevitable una correcci\u00f3n por la v\u00eda de una devaluaci\u00f3n, que incluso pudo ser mayor que la que se produjo.\u00a0 Esto, claro est\u00e1, generar\u00e1 aumentos de precios de aquellos productos que se importan con d\u00f3lares controlados, pero ese no ser\u00e1 el principal elemento generador de inflaci\u00f3n en los meses por venir.<\/p>\n<p>Lo que realmente elevar\u00e1 los precios es el alza permanente del tipo de cambio libre.\u00a0 En efecto, el disparatado encarecimiento del d\u00f3lar en el mercado paralelo, en buena medida debido a la rigidez del control cambiario, ha generado fuertes subidas en los precios, pues los productores e importadores establecen \u00e9stos en base a los costes de reposici\u00f3n esperados que ellos tendr\u00e1n que afrontar para continuar operando en los meses subsiguientes.\u00a0 Siendo los d\u00f3lares libres los \u00fanicos a los que la gran mayor\u00eda de ellos tiene acceso, es la evoluci\u00f3n esperada del tipo de cambio paralelo la que ellos utilizar\u00e1n para estimar sus costes de reposici\u00f3n\u00a0 y, por lo tanto, para fijar sus precios.<\/p>\n<p>En los dos controles de cambios anteriores se obvi\u00f3 una alta correlaci\u00f3n en la evoluci\u00f3n de los tipos de cambio controlado y libre, subiendo fuertemente el segundo cada vez que el primero se ajustaba.\u00a0 Ese hecho, combinado con la convicci\u00f3n de que la rigidez del control cambiario continuar\u00e1, lleva a muchos a concluir que el tipo de cambio libre seguir\u00e1 su dislocado ascenso en el futuro previsible, ejerciendo esto fuertes presiones inflacionarias.<\/p>\n<p>Desgraciadamente, pagaremos un alto precio por la terquedad de no aprender de los desatinos del pasado, pues estamos cometiendo los mismos errores que tanta depauperaci\u00f3n y empobrecimiento causaron en a\u00f1os recientes.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6>Imagen: <span class=\"_r3\"><span class=\"irc_ho\" dir=\"ltr\">lapatilla.com<\/span><\/span><\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sobre los efectos del ajuste del tipo de cambio preferencial de febrero de 2004, a un a\u00f1o de haberse establecido el control de cambios en 2003, y del comportamiento del tipo de cambio en el mercado libre de divisas<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1473,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,20,17,21,11,22],"tags":[111,110,278,56,452,74,425,112,98,102],"class_list":["post-1461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articulos-de-opinion","category-aspectos-cambiarios","category-economia-venezolana","category-inflacion","category-opinion","category-politica-economica","tag-aspectos-cambiarios","tag-aspectos-fiscales-y-monetarios","tag-control-de-cambios","tag-devaluacion","tag-efectos","tag-inflacion","tag-mercado-paralelo","tag-politica-economica","tag-tipo-de-cambio-preferencial","tag-tipos-de-cambio"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Efectos de la devaluaci\u00f3n - Pedro A. 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